Tuesday, August 23, 2011
Obama to use Race Card in 2012?!
By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)
The White House Insider told blogger Ulterman that the Obama campaign was gearing up to use raxe as a weapon against the GOP in 2012. The Insider claims that Team Obama is convinced that this is there only way to victory in 2012. The Insider said,
"…White guilt got Barack Obama the nomination. White guilt got Barack Obama into the White House. At least it was a big part of it…they are not sure they can run on the economy by summer of 2012."
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's factory index collapsed to a -30.7. That's an enormous drop. The Labor Department has received around 400,000 or more new applications for unemployment benefits for the 18th consecutive week. I think it's safe to say that the economy isn't improving and Obama won't be running on his economic record next year.
"Motivation is way down – the people on the ground. Many of them will be sitting this one out."
You think? Young voters are very reactionary and the mythology of "The Great One" has faded. He won't have as nearly many college students campaigning for him. And given the motivation of the conservatives in 2010, I doubt you can expect blacks to be overrepresented in the 2012 election. Obama's average approval rating is hovering below 44% with 50% disapproving of his work. He even scored a record low 38% approval rating in Gallup's latest poll. This is Bush territory.
"The campaign conducted over five internals in the last few months. Each time the one issue that came back favorably for the president was the color of his skin. People are not comfortable…white people are not comfortable going against a person of color. At least not a whole lot of them."
First of all, Latinos are being hit harder by the economic downturn than whites, so it may be unrealistic to expect them to remain loyal to a leader that is clearly failing. I think the race card strategy is more likely to alienate the president from both whites and Latinos. The black vote will be there no matter what. But if the white voters turn out in decent numbers and his remains unpopular, Obama will lose big. As of August 2011, his approval ratings (Gallup) among whites stands at 32%. Remember, Obama captured 43% of the white vote in 2008.
Even with the growth of the Latino population, this performance among whites will destroy his chances on winning in 2012. In 2008, 63% of Latino voters voted for him. As of August 2011, only 44% of Latinos support Obama. Unless Obama can start a bigger war or pull a GOP opponent who is very weak, 2012 is going to be a nightmare for the President.
…They got an entire plan to utilize it. Targeting certain states. A media campaign. Use it as a weapon against prospective opponents…"
Newsflash: No one watches MSNBC.
The map above is a display of states that I think Obama can win. The blue states should be easy for Obama to win, the red states will be easy for a competent Republican to win and the gray will be swing states. Obama barely won Indiana and North Carolina in 2008, so they certainly won't be achievable for Obama in 2012.
Wisconsin and Minnesota are reliably blue states, except their union power base has weaken dramatically and recent recall elections proved that the GOP didn't doom themselves by standing up to the unions. SO these states may be in play. Demographic trends in Virginia still make it a state that Obama can win. It has a growing population of Washington liberals, college students and blacks. The map below is what I think Obama will most likely be dealing with if things don't involve.
When you look at Rasmussen's Daily tracking, the number of Americans who have strongly supported Obama has been dwarfed by the amount that strongly oppose throughout his presidency. This shows a major deficit in in enthusiasm for Obama for 2012.
Using race as a key issue in 2012 will open the door for the GOP to use his history with Rev. Wright and the Obama administration's racial bias in the New Black Partner Party. For the record, Wright is right about the U.S. war against drugs and all around injustice. But his crazed rhetoric about various groups is divisive and irresponsible. The comment about U.S. of KKK is idiotic.
The next GOP nominee may not be afraid to attack Obama, unlike John McCain. Obama bringing the issue up may paved the way for an opponent to effective in attack him on the New Black partner issue. Rick Perry is a snake, he'll know how to exploit these issues with skill and cover. Just look at how he handled Texas' TSA bill. He used the bill to boast his standing, secretly killed that bill, brought it back so he could exploit it more and then had the Texas Legislature pass a watered down version of the bill.
Frankly, his Democratic buddies have already played that card to death and I think he'll get a nasty backlash. I think a hardcore race-based campaign preying on "White Guilt" will alienate a lot of the new voters who supported him last time. It would also motive white voters who are already angry about the economy. I don't know if the White House Insider is correct, but if Obama tries this, it will tear this country apart. And if the country is in chaos, no one will have faith in the leadership. But maybe I'm wrong. I'm curious, do you think the race card will work will for Obama in 2012.
The White House Insider
2008 Exit Polls
Philadelphia Fed Reports Steep Manufacturing Drop