The NON Persons: The Uncounted Unemployed

Employment to Population Ratio

By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)

"Unemployment Slips to 8.6% as Private Sector Adds Jobs Well"

The headline read,

I was way off on my prediction on the U3 unemployment reaching 12% this year. We didn't see a new wave of layoffs (in the private sector). The official unemployment number actually dropped. However, the real unemployment has not dropped. A lot less people can get benefits, many aren't, even counted. Hiring in the private-sector grew by a 140,000 jobs, the public sector cut 20,000 jobs. What kind of jobs where created this holiday season, 50,000 jobs in retail, 22,000 in hospitality, 33,000 in business service. Does business service involves in actual production of any goods? Where most of the hospitality jobs created that type of work that you can support a family on? Where retail stores hiring full-time or where they offers $8 or $9 bucks an hour, part-time/seasonal with no benefits?

Hourly earnings dipped by 2 cent, while salaries increased by 1.8%, neither could keep up with inflation. In a nutshell, I was wrong about the timing of the new wave of layoffs, but only time will reveal if I am wrong about the event happening at all. Technically, we already saw a major layoff in local, county and state government.s And we did see a lot of Americans shopping on Black Friday. The National Federation Retail claimed that sales increased 16% from last year. Of course, many stores were shut down since then, so the remaining stores would naturally improve. And I should warn you that the 16% is based on a survey and not hard cash. This year, they polled 3,826 consumers and calculated that Americans spent $$52.4 billion on Black Friday weekend.

2011 Black Friday Sales

Nevertheless, many Americans spent their last penny this holiday season on flat screen TVs,video game consoles, toys and movies. I have no aversion to any of those products, but I realize that it is more important to have basic items before you acquire the amenities. For example, doesn't it make more since to have extra food and water for an emergency before you buy another flat screen TV? And why is your girlfriend walking around with expensive jewelry when she doesn't even have a gun to fight off a mugger or rapist? Some people are so tapped out that they are trying to get tax loans to buy presents this holiday season. There's nothing wrong with buying toys and TVs for Christmas, just make sure that your family has the basics for responding to an emergency.

The government numbers are very deceptive. The official unemployment number is really just one of the the government's unemployment numbers. It's called the U3 number, which only calculates how many people are unemployed for 15 weeks or longer. But it excludes part-time workers who want to work full-time and many discouraged workers. The U6 number (15.6% as of November 2011) includes these groups. However, but government numbers exclude the chronically unemployment. The government keeps the unemployment number down by excluding a lot of the unemployment and simply claiming that they are no longer apart of the workforce.

The duration of unemployment tells the story. 59% of the unemployed have been jobless for at least 15 weeks. 43% of the unemployment have been unemployed for over 27 weeks as of November 2011. The employment to population ratio has still remained very low.

BLS Unemployment numbers

In 2001, 64.4% of the American population was employed, now that number is down to 58.5%. This government number is something that doesn't get reported because there's no way to spin the data.

Employment to Population ratio

In conclusion, the recent data is a reflection of a large portion of the unemployed population being re-classified as non persons, people without jobs, but not apart of the labor force. It's just smoke and mirrors.

Check out my video analysis below and tell me what you think.

ASK DEMCAD: The Future

A Question from an Italian viewer:

"I am an Italian boy and as you know the economic crisis is hitting us hard! then the volcanoes, solar storms, earthquakes, etc. ... like you I am preparing to soppravivenza with stocks, bob! Unfortunately in my country do not see the dark times that are approaching, so I am alone, and not have anyone to discuss it here! wanted to ask you what you think of the future that approaches what what more could you think and prepare!"

First, thank you for writing to me. Regarding your question, I think things are going to change in so many ways that you won't be able to see most of it coming. Gerald Celente talks about a trend called "Do it yourself!" it always amazed me how little parents prepared for parenthood. The people having the most kids have the fewest to offer. You never see people preparing on any level. If I was expecting a child, I would at least brush up on my spelling and math skills. If I couldn't spell the word "utility" or "brush", I would want to read up. I've seen kids who can spell better than their parents. If I were expecting a daughter, I would learn how to do a girl's hair. In the future, we maybe forced to do more things on our own. We'll have to repair our our dryer. So I'm forcing more on knowledge and learning skills. That will be more important in every nation.

You can send your messages to youtube.com/DEMCAD or DEMCAD@yahoo.com.

Urban Prepping: Why are there so Few Black Preppers?

By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)



A journalism student recently contacted me about setting up a phone interview on the issue of black preppers. On my main youtube channel, I created a video entitled "
Why are there so Few Black Preppers?" The journalist wanted to get more of my views on the issue and the following was my reply.

This is a very interesting topic, because it touches on a number of social issues. So even if you don't care about prepping, this issue is relevant. You can't talk about the challenges of being a black prepper without issuing the lack of (economic) cooperation in the black community. How can you organize an emergency plan in a community where people don't even support other local businesses or talents. Black people rarely support black businesses, but are quick to send every cent at an Asian-owned store or corporation. Not that I refuse to shop at non-black stores, but I at least try to support black businesses.

Another challenge is convincing other blacks that the government could fail to provide for us. Even after Katrina, most blacks look for the government for solutions.

Another issue is security. Being black means, you're likely to live among blacks. And since we have a much higher homicide rate than any group, simply being black dramatically increasing the likelihood that you will be murdered both under normal conditions and during a crisis.

Ironically, blacks are generally anti-gun rights. Don't take my word for it, read it yourself. A pathetic 30% of use valued gun rights or gun control. Am I the only person who notices that black cities trend to be the most pro control areas, while having the very worst crime levels.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/1858/gun-control-rights-division-demographics-party-ideology-religion-region-tea-party

PDF file
http://pewresearch.org/assets/pdf/gun-control-2011.pdf

So if something happens and you're among blacks, you're going to be dealing with much higher crime and neighbors who are less likely to be armed. Two extremely big disadvantages and that's why you will most likely inherent simply because of the color of your skin (or being white in a black area.)

Blacks also control a less percentage of resources (relevant to our population) than whites. How have more failing schools, more poverty, shall I control. Granted, many (if not most) of our problems are caused by ourselves, but not all of them.

The reason why there are so few preppers in the black population is because of cultures don't value self-reliance and pro-activity. Not that I'm completely self-relevant, but I at least practice using firearms, collect ammunition, store food, acquire first aid materials and attempt to prepare for disasters. Many blacks (and whites) seem to suffer some normalcy bias and can't conceive a situation where the systems fail.



Here are my videos.
Challenges of Black Preppers
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AVev3ckAOEo

Why are there so Few Black Preppers?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uFswM-5Nmzs

America's Collapse in Three Stories!

By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)

The United States is collapsing. It's economic system is unsustainable and unraveling. It's political system has been corrupted to the core. It's culture has decayed into a cesspool of greed, narcissism and cruelty. The America that the babyboomers grew up in is dead. The empire is dying. Many people have asked me over the years, why I foresee such a dark future for America. Simply put, that future is coming to past.

Let me point out three stories. Three pictures that will provide you with a three dimensional view of America. Something that many of us have ignored.

The Rising Poverty
Data released from a recent Census Bureau report shows that as of 2007, 100 million Americans were either poor or near poor. What this means is that one third of the population earned a measly 150% of the poverty income or less. Most of the 51 million Americans who are counted as the "Near Poor" are only out of the official poverty level because they are being assisted by the government in some form.

Demographically, they look more like “The Brady Bunch” than “The Wire.” Half live in households headed by a married couple; 49 percent live in the suburbs. Nearly half are non-Hispanic white, 18 percent are black and 26 percent are Latino. Source: The New York Times

The Shrinking Middle Class
A Stanford University study showed that the number of middle class areas have been shrinking in the last four decades. In 1970, 65% of Americans lived in middle class areas. In 2007, it was only 44%. And that's before the financial crisis in late 2008 and the massive layoffs in 2009.

Wall Street Takeover
Not only did Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase, and the other zombie banks use their bribe money to get the corrupt politicians in Washington to steal taxpayer money for a bailout, but they managed to do it without any significant punishment. Goldman Sachs has already been busted for ripping their other clients off when they created a bunch of junk derivatives, sold to their clients and then beat against the crap they sold to their clients. But apparently, these Wall Street types can outright steal and no one goes to jail. Former New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine ran brokerage firm MF Global into the ground. Initially, it was thought that $600 million dollars of their clients money had disappeared. Well, now that number maybe as closer to $1.2 billion. Let me ask you one question, why hasn't anyone arrested Jon Corzine. While the NYPD is busy beating up college kids protesting the Wall Street street bankers, the real criminals are running wild.

Corrupt politicians, immune Wall Street criminals and a shrinking middle class. it's really simply, America is collapsing because the things that once made it great are no longer present. The criminals are running the country and making most of the American people poorer. They are literally stealing our future from us.

MF Global

Older, Suburban and Struggling, ‘Near Poor’ Startle the Census

Middle-class areas shrinking in US: study

Goldman Sachs admits it misled investors, pays $550M fine

Bugging out to a Lakefront Cabin?

By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)

As many of you know. I've been preparing for what I think is the inevitable collapse of the American empire for ther last three years. While doing so, I have explored the notion of bugging out (leaving your primary home to escape to a rural location in times of social unrest and/or disaster), but I given my limited resources and lack of location, I don't think it's going to be realistic for me to bug out. SO I've been planning on hunkering down at my current urban location. Although, Flint, Michigan is the most violent city in America, I still know more about the terrain and environment than any other location.

And in a SHTF (shit hits the fan) situation, that will be important. I recent joined a friend on a trip up north to Rural Michigan. We stayed at a cabin on a lakefront property and let me tell you that I wasn't comfortable with the number of cabins in the area. I counted at least 10 cabins near the lake and wondered if this would be a good place to bug out to. If there was a SHTF situation, everyone and there family would flock to these cabins.

Sure, there would be plenty of food to fish, but with this many people, you would be faced with many of the same problems that you would dealing with the the city. The difference is that you would have more food, but have less access to hospitals and other structures. I've lived in rural areas and I understand the trade off.

Just as cities vary, not all rural areas are the same. but generally, you get a social trade off. These areas are great for married couples and retired people, but not ideal for a single guy who wants to find hot single ladies. Nevertheless, in a SHTF situation, that will not be a high priority. I think it makes better since to pay some state land 40 miles away from a sizable city with plenty of amenities and a good trauma center. Set up a well pump and hunt deer. That way you will be able to eat and not worry about your countless unknown neighbors. If it's a waterfront property, you will be dealing with strangers who are related to your neighbors.

If I do go to a rural location, it wouldn't be on lakefront property, because those areas would get flooded with (a lot of them city folks) people and that would feat the purpose on being there in the first place. I would rather stay at home whether I know the environment and people.

Americans Too Fat and Lazy to Work?!

By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)

Youtuber Yankeeprepper uploaded a video of a AP news report on Alabama's new law that banned illegals from working on farms. But when the farms hired Americans, they learned that many were too lazy and out of shape to work at a good pace. Some of the farmers complain that the Americans are not strong enough for the field work. Well, given the fact that the illegals have been doing this all of their lives, it would be difficult for anyone living in a first world nation to start off as fast as a worker from a third world nation. Moreover, the farmers probably aren;t even paying a living wage, so it's going to take a well to find someone who is willing to work super hard on a very low wage. Remember, Americans have first world expenses, not Mexico prices to contend with.

In my hometown of Flint, Michigan, the economy is so depressed that the city has been forced to cut their police force to bare bones. I recently took on a labor job working with a friend of mine. He's an experienced freelance repairman. He does drywall, carpentry and roofing. He's done it all and does it well. Currently, he's putting a new roof on one of his friend's rental home in Flint. My job was to help him but cutting wood and carrying wood boards and shingles up a two story ladder while he install the shingles, paper and work.

Let me tell you that although, I have helped my buddy Nick install shingles in the past, this job is hard work. This is dangerous and demanding work. When you're two stories up on a ladder with heavy shingles in your hands, one mistake can ruin your life. But I need the money, so I'm doing what needs to be done.

And I'm doing it for 8 bucks an hour. I show up on time and hard 8 to 10 hour shifts. Now, are there lazy Americans out there. Hell yes! But don't let anyone fool you into believing that none of us are willing to work out asses out.

On my first day, I carried a ton of old shingles onto a trailer. Fortunately, I had some help unloading it in a landfill. My name is Reginald Kaigler and I graduated from the University of Michigan-Flint with a BA in criminal justice and sociology. I had hoped to become a parole/probation officer, but when the economy tanked, state governments stopped hiring.

Who is Controlling Occupy Wall Street?

By Reginald Kaigler (DEMCAD)

The Occupy Wall Street movement has been portrayed by the mainstream media as a circus of socialists, communists, anarchists, hardcore leftists, hippies and crazies. But we should be just as suspicious of the mainstream media's spin as we are of the actual protesters. Remember, the mainstream media attempted to marginalize the Tea Party in it's earliest stage. The grassroots movement was galvanized by the betrayal of Washington politicians and their infamous banker bailouts. Ultimately, the movement was co-opted by the Republican Party and turned into a Glenn Beck/Sarah Palin right wing freak show.

I think the same problem is corrupting the Occupy Wall Street movement. I spoke with a local supporter in my home state of Michigan who told me that his event was receiving resources and support from a state Senator. He didn't know much about the Senator, but he was willing to accept something free from him as long as it helped his cause. The problem is that if the Occupy Wall Street let the Democratic Party and it's special interest groups into the movement, it will lose credibility. How can you work with special interests that support one of the two political parties are owned by Wall Street and except to be effective in stopping the criminals on Wall Street?

Reuters released an article on George Soros connection to groups that have helped start Occupy Wall Street. Soros' group Open Society gave $3.5 million in grants to the Tides Center (which is a hub that gives donations to left wing groups.) The Tides Center rewarded Adbusters with $185,000 in grants from 2001-2010, including nearly $26,000 between 2007-2009. We have no idea how much money Soros has given Adbusters in 2011. But we do know that Adbusters helped a big role in organizing Occupy Wall Street.

The Occupy Wall Street Movement seems like a incoherent mess with a lot of people who mean well. They just need to kick Acorn, the unions and all of the special interests out of the protests, before they take over. Youtuber TheNewYorkCritic has pointed out how the mainstream media has painted an unfair picture of the protesters. I don't know if this movement was created by Soros or not, but the people have an opportunity to make it work for them.



Personally, I've never even been to New York, so I can't say what exactly is happening, but I will say that in order for the movement to be effective, they must hit Wall Street in the pocket book. I used to have two accounts with the so called "Too big to fail" banks. I shut down my account with Wells Fargo in 2010 when i returned from Alaska and I am switching my funds to a local credit union by New Years Eve. I would have done it sooner if we weren't struggling financially. I'm the only person in my family with an income. My sister has been out of work for three years and now I'm trying support her just as she supported me when I was out of work. I want to have an extra month of bill money just in case there is a waiting problem for switching my accounts. And I'm going to encourage my sister to do the same. I think once people start to vote with their pocket book, then the criminals on Wall Street will feel the pain.

But in event, Occupy Wall Street needs to do the following.

1) Stop the Democratic Party and special interest (Acorn, unions, etc) from taking over.
2) Decide on a unifying message.
3) Make of list of three demands!
(Require All Bailout banks to pay back all of the money, require Washington to ban future bailouts, demand that Washington System strip the Federal Reserve of its ability to control the currency)
4. Organize events that will affect the banks MONEY!

Who is funding Occupy Wall Street?