Wednesday, November 3, 2010
What's NEXT for America?!
I was wrong about a couple of races. I wrong about Nevada being smart enough to ditch Harry Reid, but I was right about virtually everything else. I correctly predicted that the Republicans would gain 60 seats in the House, but was wrong about my 9 to 10 seat gain in the Senate. The Democrats' money machine helped them limit their loses in the Senate. The good thing about the Senate is that because the races are so expensive, the incumbent can use his or her clout to collect more corporate cash and flood the expensive airwaves with ads. This helped a number of Democrats.
Nevertheless, Tuesday's elections were a disaster for Democrats. Not only did this electoral tidal wave eclipse the Republican Revolution of 1994, but it gave the GOP 6 more Senate seats and will pave the way for the GOP to reclaim the White House, Senate and House in 2012.
I say this because many people seem to believe it was a repeat of 1994. That is not the case. In 1994, we didn't have 17-22% of the population out of work. The U3 official unemployment wasn't 9.6% and the recession was long over. Obama will not have that advantage in 1996. Clinton won the election, because the average American saw an improvement in their income and lifestyle. Based on the 41 million people on food stamps, record unemployment and decline in business, the average American will not be reliving that experience.
The 2010 Exit Polls told the story.
60% of whites voted Republican. No Democrat is going to get elected with just 37% of the white vote. 37% isn't even close.
The majority of the voters were women and more of them voted Republican (49%) than Democrat (48%). So don't expect women to rescue Obama in 2012. 56% of women voted for Obama in 2008. He needs to get more support than his party did if he expects to get re-elected. He's probably going to need at least 52%. 53 or 54% if he continues to struggle with men.
Democrats still dominated among Latinos. However, they saw a 7 point drop from 2008.
60% of White Independents voted Republican, compared to 34% who voted for Democrats.
Here's the wildest poll.
Has anyone in your household lost a job or been laid off in the last two years?
House Vote Democrat House Vote Republican
Yes (31%) 50% 48%
No (69%) 45% 53%
Review the 2008 EXIT POLLS
The good news for Obama is that Presidential elections are about match-ups. Yeah, kinda like a NBA playoff game. Or a boxing match. Except the players in this contest have no talent. The American people select their leaders based on the economy (the misconception that the President can make the economy better or worse) and personality (the candidate who lies in the most convincing matter). If the average Joe or Jane were smarter and more informed, I would declared Obama a lame duck today. But if Bush and Reid can get re-elected, there's no reason why Obama can't.
Do you think Obama will get re-elected? I think he has a 40% chance of being re-elected. If I had to predict the next President, I would predict Mitch Daniels, Rick Perry or Jeb Bush to be the next President. Would if matter if Obama is re-elected or replaced? Not really.
SIDE NOTE: I think Obama would benefit from a terrorist attack. A nuclear bomb would be most useful because of the shock factor. And since Obama is going to be leaving D.C. and the rest of the politicians will not be there either. Well, I'm just saying. November 2010 would be a good opportunity for the controllers if they are evil enough to do murder a million innocent people. Why a terrorist attack? If it worked for Bush, why wouldn't the controllers try it for Obama? Obama could also use a war as a distraction. I would hate to see this happen, but I wouldn't be surprised.