Monday, November 1, 2010
2010 Election: There Will Be Blood
By (DEMCAD) Reginald Kaigler
For those of you who care. I'll be tweeting tomorrow on election night starting at 8pm ET.
Anyway, the Democrats are in big trouble. It's uglier by the hour. Check out RealClearPolitics.com
Dems 167 seats
GOP 224 seats
Toss Up 44 seats
Seriously, when you look at the turn out models, my predictions are looking better and better.
I think the GOP will clear +60 seats easily. If that happens, the Dems will have about 194.
When you look at the points, 194 isn't even the worse case scenario.
They could easily lose 70 seats. The Democrats would have to win 30 out of the 44 toss up seats just to get to 197. And judging by Gallup's turnout party ID polls, that doesn't look remotely realistic. Gallup's generic ballot poll of 1,539 likely voters shows 52% to 55% of likely voters preferring the GOP candidate and 40% to 42% for the Dems. 15-percentage-point lead among likely voters. 15 POINTS. Wow! When polling registered voters, the GOP only has a 4% advantage. But the likely voters are more relevant than the registered voters.
At this point, my 60-seat prediction doesn't seem very rosy for the GOP. It's appears to be ... conservative.
NEVADA (Sharron Angle v. Harry Reid)
This race is still a tie, with Angle holding a slim (statistically insignificant) lead in the PPP (Angle +1) and FOX News/POR-Rasmussen (angle +3) polls. These are likely voters. The Public Policy Polling shows that Reid has a 50-46 lead with early voters, but there is evidence that the poll maybe too optimistic for Reid.
Early voting is showing the GOP closing the registration gap. There are 60,000 more registered Democrats in Nevada than Republicans. Democrats only had a 6,000 vote advantage in early voting.
The PPP shows that the race is widening for the people who wil vote tommorrow. Angle leads by a 48-40 margin.
So I'm calling it. Harry Reid is toast.
WASHINGTON (Dino Rossi vs. Patty Murray)
I maybe wrong about this one. That Washington Senate seat is too call to close. The GOP candidate, Rossi, is putting up a better fight than I expected. The race is a dead heat. I still think Murray (D) will pull this one out. She was leading for most of October and i think she will benefit from early voting.
PENNSYLVANIA (Joe Sestak vs. Pat Toomey)
Quinnipiac has GOP Senate candidate (Pennsylvania) Toomey leading Democrat Sestak 50 to 45. Toomey has a commanding leads 13 point lead among independents. Republican Tom Corbett also has a 10 point lead in the Governor's race, so this will only make things worse for Sestak.
With Toomey capturing 52% of the independent vote compared to Sestak's 39 percent, I think it's safe to call this race a lock for the GOP.
ILLINOIS (Giannoulias vs. Kirk)
Both PPP (D) and FOX News/POR-Rasmussen have Republican Kirk up by 4%. By since this is a blue state, I'll give an extra 2% for turnout. But I still think Giannoulias will lose. First, Obama popularity is decreasing in his own state. Second, people are angry about Obamacare. Third, Giannoulias is a white Democrat battling both a Republican and a black liberal (LeAlan Jones). Green Party LeAlan Jones gaining 6% of the electorate. If you're a white Democrat, you can't afford to have a black liberal in the race when you're battling a Republican in the middle of a anti-Democratic wave election. Democrats need blacks to win, period!
According to FOX News/POR-Rasmussen, Kirk is polling 46% and Giannoulias is carrying 42%. kirk has the edge in favorable and voter loyalty poll questions.
CONNECTICUT (McMahon vs. Blumenthal)
This Senate race is over! McMahon is toast. She's down by 9 to 11 points. Congratulations Blumenthal.
COLORADO (Buck vs. Bennet)
This race is close. PPP has Republican Ken Buck up by just one point. It's a statistical tie. But Buck's approval ratings is significantly higher than Michael Bennet’s job performance. Buck has a 44% approval rating, which isn't impressive. But with only 39% of the likely voters approving of Michael Bennet’s job performance, I don't see how he can get re-elected. Here's a rule that has served me well: When you're approval ratings are in the thirties, you lose!
The only exception is when you're running against Hitler. Actually, even Hitler won some elections. Sorry Bennet. You're out!